Technology Opportunity Analysis

We present an approach to efficiently generate effective intelligence on emerging technologies. This approach draws on monitoring and bibliometrics to mine the wealth of information available in major public electronic databases. The approach uses new software to expedite secondary analyses of database searches on topics of interest. We illustrate the range of information profiles possible by examining research and development (R&D) publications and patents pertaining to electronics assembly and, more specifically, to multichip module development.

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences co-exist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used -- from industrial to information and molecular -- make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy-makers.